Old Women Settle

I was reading Dalrock’s “2017 Never Married Data” dated 04 September 2018 and had a flash of insight.

Note that the spectacular jump we saw in 2014 for the 35-39 age bracket appears to have been statistical noise.

The delayed marriage strategy of American women is a game of cat and mouse. I admit that, having read a Dalrock post or two on this topic before (not sure if the same or not), I was mildly shocked that women are getting married as much as they want to get married. By age 45 American women of today have gotten married at least once in no less proportion than their counterparts of 10 or 20 years ago.

At first, like everybody else, I attributed it to desperate men, and I do not discount male enablement of liberated female behavior. However, the ‘statistical noise’ can be interpreted as accurate data if we attribute animal shrewdness to women, as is my red-pill norm. Suppose the marriage market tightens up for women past 35. If there is a relative social shift, women will intuitively sense it. They are consummate social relativists.

They will settle if and only if forced to settle.

If women actually do sense the change in the power balance as acutely as I think they do, then it follows that there will be choppier data from here on out. If the marriage bubble is unwinding and if women are adjusting only once defeat is demonstrated to her hamster, there will likely be short-lived ups and downs in the proportion of women never married in their 30s and 40s. Women have a herd psychology, as seen with fashion trends. It stands to reason that American women compute a fashionability rating of marriage that gets higher with a woman’s age.

Therefore, though I think there is no marriage strike by American men, I expect there is increasing men’s disinterest that is offset by woman’s wiles adjusted by closet desperation. The statistics for women who have never married does not reflect how happy or long-lasting marriages are. I would expect settling has a cost of dissatisfaction that adds up enough to have statistical significance elsewhere.

The lesson from this statistically disguised victory would be, not surprisingly, that negotiated compromise with a woman is a very bad idea. She has those wiles. Her every face is a poker face. But we already knew that, and this interpretation of the noise is not essential support. I say that because there is another factor that must be considered for the reasonable interpretation of the data.

Native-born American women are presumably marrying immigrant-conquerors more and more. If so significantly more than native-born men marry foreign-born women and if foreign-born men are highly prized for marriage, the phenomenon would insulate women from desperation and therefore not explain statistical noise as anything else.

I think that is a caveat for the will-settle interpretation, but marriage is not sex just as prime beta bux is not prime alpha fux. I expect the romantic notion of the sexy invader is not the same as reality. I expect there is some disgust with white American women as part of the disgust for Westerners in general. The state welfare is so generous and the alien community is so fundamental that I suspect that very few native-born women over 35 have the acceptable money and body to attract a foreign-born invader husband. There is no way to know without statistical evidence, and I haven’t found any. Nor have I seen any anecdotal evidence to conclude older American women are shifting their husband-hunting focus toward foreign-born men.

I think the caveat is minor. In three years the data should speak for itself, choppy or not choppy.

—‘Reality’ Doug, 15 November 2018